Source: The Sunday Telegraph
JULIA Gillard's leadership faces a crucial fortnight with Labor powerbrokers privately canvassing the option of a delegation of MPs urging her to stand aside.
In another blow, an exclusive Galaxy Poll conducted for The Sunday Telegraph reveals the ALP's primary vote has dropped three points in the past month to just 32 per cent.
Faced with the choice between Ms Gillard, a fresh face or the man Ms Gillard replaced as prime minister, Kevin Rudd, only one in three voters believed Ms Gillard should remain PM.
While she is expected to fight off any further attempts to destabilise her leadership, Labor MPs bracing for more dire polls have warned it could prove unsustainable.
Galaxy revealed voters are divided over the leadership: 33 per cent believe Labor must elect a fresh face such as Bill Shorten or Greg Combet - a prospect MPs say is unlikely.
Confronted with the choice, 32 per cent of the total polled suggested the ALP should stick it out with Ms Gillard. Support for the status quo was strongest among Labor voters. Kevin Rudd was the third choice on 26 per cent, a surprise after several polls declared him a vote-switcher.
MPs returning to parliament on Tuesday are bracing for a Newspoll this week and Nielsen results next week, suggesting these figures hold the key to whether the Ms Gillard will tough out the fortnight.Kevin Rudd has repeatedly warned his backers he will not challenge for the leadership and would only agree to a political resurrection if it were accompanied by a smooth transition without a ballot.
"He is not going to challenge," a Rudd backer said. "When he says there's no challenge, he means it."
Giving Ms Gillard "the tap" and forcing her to stand down remains the only live option to remove her and reinstate the man she ousted in 2010.
But her backers have long warned giving up is "not in her DNA".
Former Labor powerbroker Graham Richardson confirmed last night he had spoken with Mr Shorten about shifting support to Mr Rudd, but he is not for turning. "All I can say is I always give him the benefit of my wisdom," Mr Richardson said.
"But he's not shifting."
"I believe the chances are 55-45 the leadership change will happen in the next fortnight. And I think they'll do it. "I think Rudd is probably high 40s to 50 (votes in caucus). If Newspoll comes out with a bad result I think she's gone."She doesn't listen to anyone. If you want a delegation, it would have Right-Left clout.
"Even her strongest supporters are starting to think, 'Is it all worthwhile?' I think it will be in the next two weeks but we will see.
"She's still got a good chance of surviving.
Labor was also on track for a devastating state electoral loss in WA last night as polling suggested federal factors were significant for some voters including anger over the carbon tax.
Ms Gillard has not set foot in WA since December, agreeing to orders from campaign chiefs not to participate in the campaign amid concerns voters' views about federal politics were "toxic".
Source: The Sunday Telegraph
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